Analytical Articles

AFGHANISTAN: THE MAKING OF A QUAGMIRE?

By Stephen Blank (12/05/2001 issue of the CACI Analyst)

While the military campaign in Afghanistan has done much to end Taliban control over Afghanistan and put Al Qaeda on the run, steps to secure peace are lagging behind. The various warlords and factions in Afghanistan are all struggling for shares in power in the future government of the country, a struggle that could easily turn violent. Meanwhile, foreign powers have reverted to both covert and overt quests for influence. This risks bringing internal strife back to Afghanistan as in 1992-96 unless the U.S. takes visible steps to lead the way to reconstruction and reins in the regional powers around Afghanistan.

AFGHANISTAN: THE MAKING OF A QUAGMIRE?

By Stephen Blank (12/05/2001 issue of the CACI Analyst)

While the military campaign in Afghanistan has done much to end Taliban control over Afghanistan and put Al Qaeda on the run, steps to secure peace are lagging behind. The various warlords and factions in Afghanistan are all struggling for shares in power in the future government of the country, a struggle that could easily turn violent. Meanwhile, foreign powers have reverted to both covert and overt quests for influence. This risks bringing internal strife back to Afghanistan as in 1992-96 unless the U.S. takes visible steps to lead the way to reconstruction and reins in the regional powers around Afghanistan.

GOVERNMENT CRISIS IN KAZAKHSTAN: WARM-UP FOR THE SUCCESSION TO NAZARBAEV?

By Robert M. Cutler (12/05/2001 issue of the CACI Analyst)

The first half of November saw Kazakhstan's most important political crisis since 1997. Several principal cabinet ministers resigned to form a technocratic reform group called Democratic Choice, while President Nursultan Nazarbaev of Kazakhstan removed from office the outspoken prefect of the Pavlodar region Galymzhan Zhakiyanov. This was the outcome of a series of events beginning with the resignation of Nazarbaev's son-in-law Rakhat Aliev from his post as deputy head of the country's National Security Council. Despite Aliev's diminished public profile, the result appears nevertheless to turn to his advantage. 

GOVERNMENT CRISIS IN KAZAKHSTAN: WARM-UP FOR THE SUCCESSION TO NAZARBAEV?

By Robert M. Cutler (12/05/2001 issue of the CACI Analyst)

The first half of November saw Kazakhstan's most important political crisis since 1997. Several principal cabinet ministers resigned to form a technocratic reform group called Democratic Choice, while President Nursultan Nazarbaev of Kazakhstan removed from office the outspoken prefect of the Pavlodar region Galymzhan Zhakiyanov. This was the outcome of a series of events beginning with the resignation of Nazarbaev's son-in-law Rakhat Aliev from his post as deputy head of the country's National Security Council. Despite Aliev's diminished public profile, the result appears nevertheless to turn to his advantage. 

GOVERNMENT CRISIS IN KAZAKHSTAN: WARM-UP FOR THE SUCCESSION TO NAZARBAEV?

By Robert M. Cutler (12/05/2001 issue of the CACI Analyst)

The first half of November saw Kazakhstan's most important political crisis since 1997. Several principal cabinet ministers resigned to form a technocratic reform group called Democratic Choice, while President Nursultan Nazarbaev of Kazakhstan removed from office the outspoken prefect of the Pavlodar region Galymzhan Zhakiyanov. This was the outcome of a series of events beginning with the resignation of Nazarbaev's son-in-law Rakhat Aliev from his post as deputy head of the country's National Security Council. Despite Aliev's diminished public profile, the result appears nevertheless to turn to his advantage. 

HYPER-TERRORISM VS. HYPER-POWER: COMING TO TERMS WITH ASYMMETRY

By Maria Sultan (12/05/2001 issue of the CACI Analyst)

The unexpectedly easy access to Kabul by the Northern Alliance and the coalition against terrorism has confirmed the first principle of the 21st century warfare: that it is as good as impossible to vanquish America when it is using its entire arsenal of power. No state is in a position to challenge this ‘hyper-power’. Instead, adversaries attempt to counter this imbalance of power by the use of asymmetric methods. 

HYPER-TERRORISM VS. HYPER-POWER: COMING TO TERMS WITH ASYMMETRY

By Maria Sultan (12/05/2001 issue of the CACI Analyst)

The unexpectedly easy access to Kabul by the Northern Alliance and the coalition against terrorism has confirmed the first principle of the 21st century warfare: that it is as good as impossible to vanquish America when it is using its entire arsenal of power. No state is in a position to challenge this ‘hyper-power’. Instead, adversaries attempt to counter this imbalance of power by the use of asymmetric methods. 

ECOLOGICAL SECURITY: AN URGENT NECESSITY FOR CENTRAL ASIA

By Jyldyz Sydygalieva (12/05/2001 issue of the CACI Analyst)

Before the collapse of the Soviet Union, Central Asia provided raw materials and was a proving ground for the Soviet Union's nuclear program. The Kyrgyz Republic, in fact, was a radioactive dump and is home to hazardous nuclear "tailings". As a result, there is a dangerous possibility of radioactive pollution of a huge area, including the territory of other Central Asian states. It may cause serious consequences for the population, environment and economy of the Central Asian region.

ECOLOGICAL SECURITY: AN URGENT NECESSITY FOR CENTRAL ASIA

By Jyldyz Sydygalieva (12/05/2001 issue of the CACI Analyst)

Before the collapse of the Soviet Union, Central Asia provided raw materials and was a proving ground for the Soviet Union's nuclear program. The Kyrgyz Republic, in fact, was a radioactive dump and is home to hazardous nuclear "tailings". As a result, there is a dangerous possibility of radioactive pollution of a huge area, including the territory of other Central Asian states. It may cause serious consequences for the population, environment and economy of the Central Asian region.

AFGHANISTAN: THE MAKING OF A QUAGMIRE?

By Stephen Blank (12/05/2001 issue of the CACI Analyst)

While the military campaign in Afghanistan has done much to end Taliban control over Afghanistan and put Al Qaeda on the run, steps to secure peace are lagging behind. The various warlords and factions in Afghanistan are all struggling for shares in power in the future government of the country, a struggle that could easily turn violent. Meanwhile, foreign powers have reverted to both covert and overt quests for influence. This risks bringing internal strife back to Afghanistan as in 1992-96 unless the U.S. takes visible steps to lead the way to reconstruction and reins in the regional powers around Afghanistan.

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