The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst

VOL. 15 NO. 8, 17 APRIL 2013

Welcome to the website of the Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, the biweekly journal of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Joint Center.

This issue features analytical articles on Russian military mopping up operations in Dagestan, reports on Turkey's interest in joining the SCO, Grozny and Moscow's struggle over subsidies, and Kyrgyzstan's balancing between Russia and China. In field reports, articles on the release of a notorious criminal from Kyrgyzstan's prison, Nazarbayev's visit to Beijing, Georgia's probe of the 2008 war, and the closure of an opposition university in Azerbaijan.   


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10 April 2013 BIWEEKLY TURKEY ANALYST
The sister publication to the Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst features analysis and coverage on Turkish domestic and foreign policy. Issue no. 7, 10 April 2013 is now online, with articles on Turkey's politicized court cases and Turkey's relations with Russia and Iran.



MOPPING UP GIMRY: “ZACHISTKAS” REACH DAGESTAN

By Emil Souleimanov (04/16/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)

In the early hours of April 11, a group of spetsnaz, Russian elite forces, came under fire in the vicinity of Gimry, a large village located in the Untsukul ditrict of Central Dagestan. During the skirmish that followed, Russian forces took fire from the village of Gimry. This along with the concerns that part of the insurgents might have been based in Gimry prompted law enforcement units to launch a massive crackdown on the village next day.

WHAT IMPACT WOULD TURKISH MEMBERSHIP HAVE ON THE SCO?

By Stephen Blank (04/16/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)

Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdo?an earlier this year announced Turkey’s desire to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as a full member. He openly alluded to the frustration generated by the EU’s refusal to consider Turkey seriously as a member. Erdogan’s speech quickly led to French and German concessions regarding membership negotiations in the EU and most commentators opined that Erdogan was not serious about the SCO. But what if the Turkish government sees no incompatibility between memberships in these two organizations? This article provides an initial attempt to assess the impact of a Turkish membership for the SCO. 

CHECHNYA AND RUSSIAN FEDERAL CENTER CLASH OVER SUBSIDIES

By Tomáš Šmíd (04/16/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)

The Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation recently issued a press release with information on the budget implementation audit of the Chechen Republic. The audit has revealed errors and violations amounting to 7.9 billion rubles (ca. US$ 252 million). While it has not yet been stated whether the violations will be classified as crimes, the Chechen leadership will have to explain how they handle the federal budget funds. To make things more complicated, the question emerges at a time when debates at the federal level increasingly question whether federal subsidies for Chechnya should be retained.

KYRGYZSTAN BETWEEN CHINA AND RUSSIA

By Dmitry Shlapentokh (04/16/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)

China’s new President Xi Jinping has underlined the crucial importance of China’s relationship with Russia and proclaimed that Russia would be his first foreign destination. Yet, despite mutual assurances and common interests in some areas, China and Russia also increasingly compete in Central Asia, not least in their approaches to Kyrgyzstan. In 2012, Kyrgyz authorities signed several agreements with both Russia and China. Agreements with Russia primarily stress military strategic matters, while those with China emphasize economic ties that, barring major conflict in the area, will be more important than military help for Kyrgyzstan. Hence China, not the U.S. or Turkey, is emerging as Russia’s major competitor for influence in Kyrgyzstan.



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